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A bettor earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.

One account, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of $32,537.

The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before News Break

Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the midday period of the prior Friday.

But the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in betting activity just before the social media post was made.

"This specific wager has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," said Dennis Kelleher.

A handful of other traders also profited significant sums from predicting the capture.

Legal Questions Emerges

Some lawmakers are starting to take note.

A new rule put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.

Market Background

Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from sports to politics.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting arena.

A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."