A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
